Question 1: Before understanding "What is the physical or experimental meaning of fusion rule/multiplicity Ncab?", one needs to undertstand what is topological excitation and what is the fusion space. The section II of our paper http://arxiv.org/abs/1311.1784 has an explaination of all those notions.
Question 2: The setup that leads to the probability is not specified, and the question is hard to answer. I guess in one setup, the probability should be proportional to Ncabdc where dc is the quantum dimension of c.